Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS.

A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have.

Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.

By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here.

Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10*