ROGERS' NFL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WALK IN THE PARK! 12-4 ALL SPORTS!
(NFL) Denver vs. Tennessee,
Point Spread: -2.50 | -120.00 Tennessee (Home)
Result: Win
The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week. The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year. They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline. The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB.
The Titans defense is especially strong on third down and has allowed even less points than the Broncos lately. They are very tough against the rush, limiting both points and yards. They do give up plenty of passing yards, although the whopping 420+ against the Chiefs was hardly typical.
The Titans run the ball more than just about anyone, and their passer stats suffer accordingly, both in yards and passer rating. The loss of Tannehill was a large but not insurmountable blow, but he is expected back this week. Tannehill is an excellent and underestimated offense manager, who passes as needed without too many mistakes. With rookie Malek behind center, we saw passer yards and effectiveness drop to a low of 57 yards and with a miserable 49 passer rating. It didn't affect Henry much. Everyone knew he would run and just couldn't stop him.
With an average of just 15 points a game, the Broncos haven't shown much in the way of pass or run offense. Wilson is 29th in passer yards and passer rating, and has been sacked 3 times a game on average. Wilson hadn't settled into the Broncos offense before their bye although his last game was an improvement. The Titans just experienced Mahomes at his finest, and still weathered the storm. I will believe in the Broncos' improved offense when I see it.
With the spread less than a field goal, I like the Titans' chances on Sunday.Tennessee bypasses the best part of the Broncos' defense, and should hold up well against the offense. Tannehill returning would be a huge bonus. Take the Titans to win and cover.