Ryan is back at QB for the Colts, and while he didn't excel last week, he will face the Steelers' much poorer pass defense in Week 12. Ryan has been very good at home this season, and while Jonathon Taylor is a solid running back, the Colts are statistically a pass-first offense. This bodes well against the Steelers, who are essentially last in the league when defending the pass. The Steelers have a reputation as a top team against the run, which is somewhat true. They do limit the opposition to under 4 yards per rush attempt, and 67 yards rushing on average in their last three games, but given how poor their pass defense is, their last three opponents chose to pass 64% of the time. The Colts have had problems protecting the passer this season, however the Steelers are not the man-eaters of yesteryear in passer pressure, with just a 14% pressure rating and 19 sacks.
Pickett played a better game last week but has yet to prove himself. The Colts defense is tough to move the ball against. They held the Eagles to just 17 points last week, allow less rush yards per attempt than the Steelers, and are 6th in passing yards allowed. They are physically very tough on the passer with 28 sacks and 85 pressures to date.
The Colts are not out of the playoff picture entirely, so Monday will be a more meaningful game for them. Look for another big game at home from Ryan, generating enough Colts points to win and cover.