The Falcons are in 2nd place in a very weak NFL South, but have failed break .500 despite many chances. The Steelers are last in their division, but appear to be the team with some momentum, showing improvement in many offense and defense area. The Falcons are all about the run, 4th in rushing yards, with a trio of running backs and a good rushing QB in Mariota. This rushing success hasn't translated into points as the Falcons have seen their scoring drop precipitously in recent weeks. The 7th ranked Steelers rush defense matches up well against a run-first offense, limiting rush yards to an average of 67, and yards/attempt to 3.1 in in their last three games.
The Steelers are getting improved play from rookie QB Pickett and RB Harris, and have seen their points scored take a 25% leap over the last three weeks, including a win against the Colts and and impressive game vs the Bengals. The Pittsburgh defense is much tougher on quarterbacks, generating 3 sacks last week. The Falcons are one of the league's lightweights in passer pressure, and had no sacks last week.
I underestimated the Steelers' improvement last week, and won't be burned again. They have been much better in controlling the game, with 56% time of possession rate in the last three weeks. Look for continued improvement from Pickett and a improving defense against a stagnant Falcons team. The Steelers to win and cover.