Michigan State has lost two in a row, both as favorites, and failed to cover three straight. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games. They’ve played a ton of close games so far with four decided by four points or less and that does not even include a double overtime win against Kentucky.



Speaking of double overtime games, Penn State just lost one of those, 101-94 at Clemson last week as part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. They’ve been off ever since, so that’s a bit of an edge in the Nittany Lions favor as MSU has played two times since that Penn State-Clemson loss took place.



I don’t really want to fade Sparty off back to back losses though, so let’s look at the total. The number has been bet up, which makes sense when you consider the final score of that Penn State-Clemson game and the fact MSU has gone Over in six of its last seven. But Penn State had gone Under in five straight prior to losing to Clemson.



Michigan State has put up just 115 points in the last two games combined and is still without Malik Hall. Their biggest concern here is defending the three-point line as PSU is shooting 40.4% from deep, including 46.2% at home. The thing is, I can’t see those numbers continuing, regardless of how well the Spartans defend in this game.



Both teams are playing slow this year, ranking 284 and 299 in pace respectively. I see value on the Under. 10*