The Lions are favored and it is not really a surprise by the numbers. No team has improved as much on offense this year as the Lions. Their points-scored total has improved by a touchdown in recent games and they have been brilliant in the red zone. They trail the Vikings in only one offensive category (rush yards per attempt) over the last three games. The Vikings have experienced some drop-off on offense, especially in pass categories in recent games. Some of this decline can be explained by their competition; they've faced 4 top-ten defenses in their last 4 games, and still won 3 of them.
The Lions have been notorious this season for poor defense, but there has been a recent improvement. They have seen their points allowed drop by a TD in their last three games, and they held the Jags and Giants to under 18 points. They've seen their passer pressure stats improve as the Vikings' have retreated. Much of this increase is a result of the Lions controlling the game on offense. The offense was on the field 61 % of the time last week, and this against a tough Jags pass defense. The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 345 passing yards in their last three games. They even allowed Mac Jones a 120 passer rating. Goff has hit his stride, is well protected, and doesn't throw the ball away. I don't believe this is a very good match-up for the Vikings in spite of their much superior record. This may be a high scoring game, but I fully expect the new improved Lions to win and cover on Sunday.