The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins' pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami's pass attack. The Dolphins don't run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn't seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They've been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami's pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.