When a road team has a worse SU record, but is not a large underdog despite home field advantage generally equating to three-points, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us and bet the road team at 275-175-15.

Going with the much more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 363-265-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. The official outlaw line is Dallas -1. Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves. Bubble burst angle about fading teams off their first loss is 74-36-1.