This is an 8* TOTAL SPECIAL on the UNDER Pirates/Orioles.

Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening.

Baltimore has seen the total go OVER in three straight after taking all three games at Texas most recently, and that's significant to note in our case here, as the Orioles have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Pittsburgh lost seven in a row, before taking three straight at home over Milwaukee. The Pirates have seen the total go OVER in four straight games.

With each having had a day off in between, we're expecting a DUEL here in the opener of this one.

Mitch Keller is 3-7 with a 4.37 ERA for the Pirates. He worked six or more innings in five July starts (two of those defeats came in ten innings, and the other came after Keller didn't allow an earned run.)

The home side counters with Dean Kremer, who is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA. He's coming off a crummy start vs. the Reds on Saturday, but we can expect him to settle down here this evening. Interestingly Kremer is 2-2 with a 5.12 ERA in all DAY games this year, and 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA in all NIGHT contests this season.

The overall situation, combined with these numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one.

Good luck, NP