Cappers | Winners and Whiners

Since its founding in the Summer of 2012, AAA Sports has finished with numerous No. 1, Top 5 and Top 10 placements in almost all of the major North American sports. 2019 was one of AAA's very best seasons. AAA finished up over $10,000 in the NFL, and also continued its NBA domination, as its 2-year run in Pro Hoops has garnered a profit of $28,576. But AAA’s success is nothing new. In 2012, AAA finished among the nation’s leaders in the NFL. The stars would also align for AAA in 2013-14 as it would finish among the most decorated handicapping services in the industry that year. AAA earned three Top 5 placements in three different sports in the same wagering season, including two No. 1’s (NCAAF and NBA) and finished No. 2 in the NHL. The 2016 NFL playoffs saw AAA go 11-3 (79%), while more recent achievements include going 20-6 (77%) in the 2019 NCAA Tournament and then delivering an additional $11,236 profit in the 2019-20 season.

Clients can expect A LOT of plays on a daily/weekly/monthly basis from AAA, as it plays almost every single "weeknight" Football game (both the NFL and College), as well as 5 to 7-game football cards on Saturday and Sunday. Clients can also expect large NBA, NHL and College Basketball cards each and every day possible. MLB cards are released very early so that one always has time to shop around for the best lines. AAA didn't put together its amazing life-time records by playing passively!

AAA does not subscribe to any single handicapping methodology. Instead AAA believes that being flexible is the best way to secure profits over the long term. Sometimes, AAA keeps it simple, while other times it will take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. AAA especially likes to take advantage of classic "spot bets" (i.e., the "look-ahead" spot, the "letdown" spot, and the "trap" game).

All of that being said, AAA primarily considers itself a “stat based” handicapping service. One set of criteria which AAA always uses when making his decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

AAA's biggest plays receive its 10* ranking. Nearly all of its point spread plays fall in the 8* to 10* range, as AAA has confidence in all of its selections and doesn't believe in significant variances in wager sizes. Money line selections will sometimes be rated lower than an 8* if it's a big favorite.

AAA cordially invites everyone to hop on board as it looks forward to another winning year.

Harnessing AI to Beat the NFL: Johns Hopkins Professor & Super Bowl Champion Team Up to Beat the Odds

WHAT: AI-Powered NFL Insights
Dr. Anton Dahbura of Bell Labs, MIT and sitting professor at Johns Hopkins University, Super Bowl Winner Femi Ayanbadejo, and team of brilliant minds have partnered with Winners and Whiners for an exclusive opportunity to help sports bettors make well-informed decisions.

Harness the power of cutting-edge AI. Dive deep into AI-driven NFL game predictions, in-depth match-up analysis, and player performance metrics.

Dive into the future with an 86.36% weekly profitability rate from last season’s BETA.

WHY: The Problem we're Solving
A changing landscape, a new opportunity

We live in a world where technology, mathematics and Ai are becoming more ubiquitous by the day in all areas of life and sport. However, Las Vegas and other globally trusted NFL odds producers have been reluctant to lean in to this approach. Beside the tech short-fall, Vegas NFL odds producers are counting on fans to make irrational and uninformed decisions. Odds are moved by money and fandom rather than pure quantitative analysis. Vegas has an inherent market inefficiency and we want to help you capitalize on this opportunity.

HOW: Our Solution
Built by fans, for fans

We are an eclectic group of computer scientists and analysts from Johns Hopkins University. Our team is also comprised of team members that represent the NFL from a player, media and executive perspective. We have tapped into our combined experiences and specialties to create a revolutionary Ai powered platform chalked with features reflecting one of the most advanced approaches to NFL game modeling on the planet. We are also NFL fans, just like you!

PROVEN PERFORMANCE: Last Year's BETA RESULTS
Consistent Weekly Profits: Last season’s BETA finished 19 out of 22 weeks on a profitable note, translating to an

86.36% weekly profitability rate.

MEET THE TEAM: The Team Behind the Revolution

* Femi Ayanbadejo
Chief Executive Officer
Advanced Sports AI

Professional experience – 26 years
Business Development, Strategic Planning, Consulting, Analytics, App Development, Ai, Start-Ups, Media/Radio/TV/Analyst, NFL Athlete/Coaching Intern

Companies
Advanced Sports Ai, HealthReel Inc., Johns Hopkins Strategic Consultant, NASA Technology Transfer Partner, CBS radio, Hearst Media, Baltimore Ravens Radio, NFL Athlete (Vikings, Ravens, Dolphins, Cardinals, Bears)

Education
Johns Hopkins Carey Business School MBA, Wharton Certification Digital Assets, Harvard Certification Advanced Negotiation, Stanford GSB NFL Entrepreneurial Certification, San Diego State University BA Psychology

* Dr. Anton Dahbura
Chief Technology Officer
Advanced Sports AI

Professional experience – 42 years
Industrial and Academic Computer Science Research and Management, Corporate Leadership, Software Development, Sports Team Ownership, Baseball Analytics Consultant, International TV Analytics, Start-Ups

Companies
AT&T Bell Laboratories, Motorola Cambridge Research Center, Hub Labels, Inc., Dahbura Family LP, Sportslynx, Hagerstown Suns Baseball LLC, Johns Hopkins Institute for Assured Autonomy, Johns Hopkins University Information Security Institute

Education
Johns Hopkins University PhD, MSEE, BSEE

* Conner Cross
Lead Applications Developer
Advanced Sports AI

Professional experience – 4 years
Software Engineering, Applications Development, Systems Architecture, Web Development, Cloud Engineering

Companies
Advanced Sports AI, Oracle

Education
Montana State University B.S. Computer Science

* Sam Oberly
Data Scientist
Advanced Sports AI

Professional experience
Machine Learning, Software Development, Simulation, Optimization, Data Analytics, Research, Technical Writing, Consulting, Natural Language Processing

Companies
MITRE, NATO’s von Karman Institute, Department of Defense, Johns Hopkins University, 21stCentury Cities Initiative, Cambridge Blockchain Society, University of Cambridge

Education
Johns Hopkins University BS Applied Mathematics and Statistics, BA Mathematics, BA Economics, MSE Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Cambridge Mathematics program partnership, von Karman Institute Short-term Training Program

* Matthew Blunt
Head of Foobtall Analytics
Advanced Sports AI

Professional experience – 6 years
Digital Signal Processing, Football Analytics, Mathematical Modeling, Machine Learning, Software Engineering, Academic Research (Computational Audio Perception, Human Language Technology, Auditory Neuroscience, Audio Forensics)

Companies
Advanced Sports AI, Bose Corporation, SensorLogic, Inc

Education
MS Electrical Engineering – Johns Hopkins University
BS Electrical Engineering – Montana State University

* Marlaina Miller
Chief Administrator Officer
Advanced Sports AI

Professional experience – 30 years
Business Development, Management, Talent Recruiting, Training, Investment Planning, Risk Management, Tax Planning, Retirement Planning, Start-Ups

Companies
AIG-American international Group, American General, Guardian, Trusted Advisors, International Analytics, La Pelle Couture, Sportslynx

Education
Columbia College, American College Of Financial Services

* Michael Peven
Director of Data Science
Advanced Sports AI

Education

PhD Candidate, Department of Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University MSE, Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University BS, Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University

Research Areas & Interests

Applied machine learning, deep learning, computer vision

JOIN THE REVOLUTOIN: Exclusive Free Beta Testing Opportunity
We’re excited to invite you to be among the first to experience our platform. As we’re now in Open BETA, your insights and feedback are invaluable. This is a limited-time opportunity, and we’re seeking passionate NFL fans to help us refine our platform.

PPV Explainer:
For the first time in NFL history, there is a data point that summarizes exactly how much every football player on the field impacts the scoreboard. The person scoring on offense or stopping a score on defense never does it alone. Football is the consummate team sport. We highlight the top performers and underachievers at every position based on what matters most. The scoreboard. Points scored/ allowed are then distributed to all active players that played on Offense or Defense. If an offense averages 27 points a game PPV should generally account for most or all of those points and distribute them among all the offensive players that stepped on the field. The same can be said for defense. There are a few non relevant exceptions.

WHAT IS PPV?
1. PPV Stands for Player Point Value. The logic and math behind PPV is proprietary and an unseen metric in football. We believe it is as revolutionary as QBR and other new statistics developed to illuminate player impact and value. Nothing gets to the heart of value like PPV.
2. PPV or Player Point Value is a proprietary data point created to distribute points scored on offense and points allowed on defense directly to offensive and defensive units, position groups, and players.
3. The higher the number, the better for offensive units, position groups, and players. The lower the number, the better for defensive units, position groups, and players.
4. PPV is tied to points scored on offense and points allowed on defense. Each offensive/defensive unit, position group and player (that plays in a game) is responsible for points scored/allowed.
5. PPV numbers cannot exceed the total number of points scored or allowed from week to week or in aggregate.
6. Our proprietary algorithmic approach to PPV includes positional value and usage/total plays also play a role in PPV/game.

HOW TO USE PPV
1. PPV can be used for individual match up analysis such as CB1 vs WR1 or when you anticipate a mismatch such as CB3 on WR1.
2. PPV can provide insights on how a complete position group matches up against their positional counterpart such as LBs vs RBs or DL vs OL.
3. PPV can also be used on the full unit level similarly to traditional Points Per Game for the Offense and Points Allowed on Defense. These are sharper numbers as random, garbage time and
other non relevant or random occurrences are not part of the PPV logic.
4. PPV is brand new. You may find other ways to use it that we have yet to think of. Have fun with it and let us know your thoughts. We are iterating every day.

The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASA), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 60+ years in the sports betting industry and have learned through firsthand experience what works and what doesn’t. Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s. After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since. They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year. ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country– especially the Big Ten.

ASA has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few. They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 Season.

ASA’s handicapping methods have evolved through years of hard work and research being the anchor of their success. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections. They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in-depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping. That is not where they stop, however. They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest). On top of that, they analyze each point spread (and their movements) comparing them with their own power ratings to find where an edge might be found. Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models predict the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that are not swayed by the human element. So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry.

Lee & Mike at ASA have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so. Their 60+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need. Sports wagering is an investment and it is time you invest in the known commodity of ASA!

You got to know when to hold 'em,
Know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away,
And know when to run.
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done.

Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep.
'Cause every hand's a winner,
And every hand's a loser,
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep." – “The Gambler”, Kenny Rogers

In the betting industry, can you be any more succinct and accurate than what Rogers said in “The Gambler” back in 1978? When you get right down to brass tacks, that’s what sports betting is all about and it’s something that, over the course of my life and career in this industry, that rings in my head every time I prepare to come up with another top play for all of my subscribers. Of course, it wasn’t just that song that pointed me in that direction: my own life experiences were a key factor in that as well.

For example, my military background taught me a lot about self-discipline and knowing who to trust in your own thought processes. Instead of placing bets to chase losses in an effort to try and catch back up, I’ve learned to just stick with my top picks and if they don’t pan out, there’s always tomorrow to bounce back. That kind of thought process may be the hardest to learn and stick to because the human condition is to try and right a situation instead of just accepting the fact that you’re going to have days where things don’t go your way. It’s easy to make up a small deficit with a couple of decent days than to climb out of a massive hole that you created by blindly jumping on other picks in an effort to right a sinking ship.

I’ve always had an affinity for numbers, statistics, analytics, and crunching all the relevant numbers to try and find the biggest discrepancies between what I think the line should be in a game and what it is at the books. Taking advantage of those situations has been the best way to maximize my ROI and keep the bottom line in the black. Sometimes that means you avoid pIcking some of the well-known power conference teams and play some of the smaller mid-major teams where the lines are a little fuzzier. While you might not see teams like Wyoming, Saint Mary’s, Kent State, and Oral Roberts on national television or in Sportscenter highlights, I’ve utilized them to put plenty of pizza money in my pocket over recent years.

Over the last seven-plus years, I’ve written thousands of previews, and done hundreds of shows, be it Just Parlays, appearing on Back to the Window or even the Bucs Pre-Game Report. I’ve even written books about sports covering college football, the NBA, the NHL, major league baseball, college basketball, and even golf. That means that when you partner with me, you’re getting someone that has a broad knowledge of all things sports related, as well as the ability to delve deeper into individual matchups in order to help you make some money at the end of the day. After all, isn’t that what it's all about?

I made it my mission to study every successful handicapper out there. It wasn’t always easy because I found out for every truly good handicapper out there, there were probably 100 that just claimed to be good. Oh sure, they represented themselves on social media or their website as having a secret process or inside knowledge that all but guaranteed success. So, I tracked their picks, I kept detailed records, and, yes, I may have even paid for a few picks on occasion.

And I found something interesting. Generally speaking, the more they bragged, the harder they tried to sell, and the louder they were, the worse their picks were. The guys making consistent money didn’t have to be loud, they didn’t have to brag, they simply let their results speak for themselves.

With the typical hubris of a 19-year-old, I honestly thought I was the first person to figure it out. But, as I continued to find great handicappers to emulate, I found out they had discovered the same inefficiencies and were leveraging them to make a tidy profit. In short, I felt like Christopher Columbus but, when I waded ashore, I found a small group of handicappers on the beach who basically laughed and said, “Welcome to the party, kid. What took you so long?”

And while that may have been the first time I made a discovery only to have it later confirmed by the pros, it wouldn’t be the last. After college, I took a job in the “real world” that allowed me to continue to pursue my real passion, beating the books. I’d like to tell you that I was profitable from Day 1. No mistakes, just a slow and steady rise in my bankroll. And, while that happened in the beginning, after a downturn that saw me unsuccessfully chasing my losses, my roll was on fumes and I was back to square one.

While that mistake was ultimately worth more in the long run than the couple hundred dollars it cost me, at the time I was devastated. I was confused, ashamed…and determined to never let it happen again.

I’d also love to tell you that was the only mistake I made along the way, but, of course, it wasn’t. There were too many parlays, too many bets made where I discounted what the data told me and I went with my gut, and I still had the tendency to try and recoup losses with bigger bets than I usually made. But I was learning.

Poker players call it “plugging the leaks in your game,” and that’s exactly what I was doing. One by one I was identifying the leaks that unnecessarily drained my bankroll. It didn’t happen overnight. It took almost five years of betting, winning some, losing some, but, most importantly, when I did lose, figuring out WHY I lost.

It wasn’t a short process. It took about five years before I felt completely confident in my process and was generating tidy profits month-after-month. So, after five years, I took the leap and became a professional handicapper full time and decided to sell my picks to the public.

What I wanted, and still want my clients to know, is you are not just paying for my picks. You’re paying for every little bit of knowledge I acquired on my journey. You’re paying for all the mistakes I identified and corrected. All the bad habits I had to overcome. In short, you’re paying me to plug the leaks in your sports betting game. Just think of me as the Flex Seal of professional handicappers.

There’s one more piece of the puzzle you get with me. It’s as important as any pick you make or key piece of information you’ve uncovered. Without it, even if everything else is working, it is extremely difficult to beat the books long-term. Of course I’m talking about money management. Of all the lessons I learned, this one was, by far, both the most difficult, and the most important. I’ll be there to walk you through the process, maximizing profits when we’re hot, and minimizing losses when we’re not.

I’m happy to be a part of the Winners and Whiners team. Of course, I love the extra eyes on my content that comes with being part of this amazing group that has created the preeminent site for game predictions from a bettor’s perspective. But I’m also thrilled to be surrounded by some of the most talented and successful handicappers anywhere on the planet. I will never stop learning and being part of the WaW team allows me to learn from the best.

Full disclosure, my picks aren’t for everybody. I don’t play a lot of parlays. The mathematical edge that tilts in favor of the house makes it extremely difficult to sustain long-term profits. There are some rare exceptions and I will still tease some football plays, but the vast majority of my daily picks will be straight bets where we have a decided advantage that hasn’t been properly reflected by the odds.

I also avoid a lot of the “big games.” Monday Nights, Thursday Nights, etc. Those are games that everyone has eyes on and the lines are usually screwed down pretty tight. Don’t get me wrong, if I’ve identified an advantage in a national game, we will jump all over it. We just won’t force a particular play simply because that game is on national television.

So, now that I’ve told you what you won't get with my service, let me tell you what you WILL get. First of all, you get someone who is working their butt off for you. This has been my full time job for over three years. My profits, and my client list, has grown steadily in the time. But most importantly, you’ll get someone who has made a lot of the same mistakes you are likely making right now. I want to take away that frustration and uncertainty and plug those leaks. Together, we will constantly search for that edge, that one piece of information that makes the difference between profit and loss. Together, we can take your bankroll to places you’ve only dreamed of. I’m ready. Are you ready? Come aboard and let’s start making money TODAY!

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available

Like a lot of people, I used to play some high school ball. While I was far from the biggest and rarely the fastest player on the field, what I lacked physically I more than made up for with strategy.

My favorite part was always the postgame analysis with our coach. He would playback the footage play by play, move by move, and break it all down. Where we went right and where we went wrong, in meticulous detail. It just started to click for me, and I would begin watching not only my past footage but also the footage of better players to compare. Even watching college and pro clips, all to see how to get the slightest edge as a player to help the team.

I had to work hard to remain competitive with my more athletically talented peers. I knew the odds were long, but I did hope that it might have been enough to make it onto a college team and maybe even Pro. Who doesn’t have that fantasy?

Despite not making the cut, I never lost my passion for the game. It's become far more than just rooting for my team - I continue to deconstruct every game play by play. This got me my first real job as a sports journalist for a statewide publication, and as soon as I could legally bet, I got into handicapping.

The analysis a good handicapper makes is not unlike what a good coach and player would do postgame, it's just applied differently and on a wider scale. I started to study all past footage I could of teams and players to start building up my understanding of their relative strengths, weaknesses, and capabilities. After a few months of test runs, I started making real money bets using my analysis. And here’s the thing, at only 18, I started to make real money from sports betting.

I did the prudent thing and stayed in college despite my early success as a handicapper gaining the attention of several companies and websites looking to recruit me as a staff handicapper. It’s safe to say that I had a lot of options when I graduated, and I decided on Winners and Whiners as the best fit. I liked their commitment to providing insightful, comprehensive game analysis and predictions while remaining accessible to bettors of all skill levels. It’s important to me that as many bettors as possible can benefit from my talent, and more importantly to beat the books!

I have a real knack for understanding the impact of every move, of every player on the outcome of a game. Knowledge established through extensive review of previous game footage as well as relevant stats, trends, and other tools. This allows me to build a very robust picture of the probable outcome of a game, often accurately predicting major plays made.

I tend to limit my bets to only those I find a lot of value on. That can be anything, including props, but most often I will identify a game with a lot of compounding factors suggesting an extreme outcome in one direction while still having a relatively conservative line. This is where I consistently find profit for myself and my fans.

Who is Ricky Tran?

Ricky Tran's destiny has always been sports betting. The "Baby Faced Assassin" was exposed to the horse racing and gaming industry from a very early age through his family's involvement. It was there that Ricky learned the basics of handicapping and wagering. His experience was soon being applied to all forms of sports betting, and a dynasty was born.

Ricky initially viewed sports, like most, as a fan. However, he soon found himself being more challenged by the gaming aspect. Being a fan was fine, but being able to break down a game's inner workings and nuances, with an unbiased and analytical mind, would give him the advantage he needed to enter the sports betting arena. Today, after several years of highly successful sports betting, Ricky Tran has the the type of lifestyle that most can't even imagine. Ask around and you'll learn that Tran is widely regarded as one of the brightest stars of the new generation of handicapping.

What sports does he bet on?

Ricky bets on NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, Soccer and CFL.

What are his handicapping systems/methods?

Ricky makes a living attacking opening lines and is almost always on the right side of line movement. All of his picks come with ‘key trends’ where he illustrates how they apply to the current situation. Ricky is extremely sharp with numbers and represents a new breed of handicapper. Youthful, enthusiastic, technically savvy and up to date with the latest tools of the trade; but he's not shy to trust his gut on any given bet and ignore the stats.

What is his strategy for pick rating and bankroll management?

Ricky Tran’s standard releases have a 7* rating, with only his top plays getting a 10* designation.

Signature Picks include:

Shoot Out the Lights (totals play): As a fan, we all like to see a high scoring game. Whether it's basketball, football or hockey, offense is always more fun than defense. If you want to sit back and watch two teams pile up the points, this signature play is on a game that should go WAY OVER!

Beware of Dog (underdog play): If you like playing favorites, you best stay away from this game. When Ricky decides to back the underdog, it usually indicates that the favorite is grossly overvalued. This play features an underdog that should threaten to win outright!

Clash of the Titans: This signature play usually features a high-profile game, often between two teams that are battling for the top spot in the league, division or conference.

Game of the Week/Month/Year: The top play for each sport, for the week, month or year.

What should I expect for pick volume and release time?

Ricky will release most of his plays the night before, with some plays released the morning of. Football plays are posted early, typically on Tuesday or Wednesday. You can expect 3-5 plays on a given day, with 5-7 plays available for big football Saturday/Sundays.

I’m not a gambler, I am a sports bettor - an important distinction. A gambler plays the odds, chasing the thrill of the jackpot. Gamblers typically bet for recreational purposes too. I bet on my intuition, skill, and knowledge as a handicapper for one reason and one reason alone: to make money. If I don’t consistently end the day with more money in my account than I started, I would get out of the business.

There is no thrill in losing, and the only reward I need from being right is cash in my account. Period.

In my 40 years of sports betting, I’ve seen a lot. It started as primarily intuition - best stats you could get in the 80s as a “regular Joe” was the box scores in the papers, and that’s hardly enough to build on. But, I taped every football game, every week, and would watch them over and over to see what really made the difference between winning and losing - and more importantly, winning against the spread. For example in football, box scores won’t tell you that 120 yards, six 1st downs, and a TD were in garbage time while their opponent was playing prevent defense, looking to run the clock out while up 3 TDs.

The 90s brought affordable computing, and the 00s made them affordable consumer products. Now the data that Vegas and major betting syndicates were using became accessible to the general public. Anyone with a mind for numbers and a little computer science background could really compete against Vegas for the first time in history. I was there for that and readily adapted to the spreadsheet lifestyle, and made some serious coin in the process.

But, all good things must come to an end and Vegas upped their game. You know your data and processes are solid when you routinely are projecting the same outcomes / lines as Vegas’ opening lines. It's still possible to find an edge here and there but it doesn’t take Vegas long to close the gap. Frankly, you really know you’re onto something when moments after you place your wagers, the line shifts against it. It is never long after that before the books figure it out and the opening line starts to reflect the previously discovered edge.

These days, I spend less time chasing those small margin edges and more time studying the footage, trends, and stats to holistically form a guess - albeit a highly qualified and educated one - on the approximate outcome of a game. My standard deviation for these predictions vary by sport, but universally are very tight.

More often than not, it is within a point of the Vegas opening line. That’s not enough value to place a bet, it's too much like gambling at that point. So I watch the lines like a hawk, and I wait for the public to move in the wrong direction - giving me enough points on the line to make the bet a worthwhile one.

I even employ a unique money management approach where I will place incrementally higher wagers on a line as it moves more and more into my favor. This risk adjusted approach has helped lead to much higher ROI in the long run.

Bottom line: I’m sharing my bets with the public in an effort to help my fans, and my clients, turn profitable days into profitable weeks into profitable seasons. Because that’s what sports betting is all about. I won’t claim I am the smartest person in the room, or necessarily the most experienced, but this is my full time job and I’ve been doing this for 40 years. That is what you get when you buy my picks.

Whether in life, or in sports, Tim Michael is a winner. Determined to "do things better," he brings a much-needed fresh approach to the sports-handicapping industry. Tim handicaps all the major American sports on a full-time basis: NFL, NCAAF, NBA NCAAB, MLB and NHL. Additionally, he's been known to make plays on soccer, boxing, UFC, tennis, WNBA and golf. In short, if Tim's got an edge, he's going to exploit it. Philosophy You'll often hear handicappers talk about finding "value" but they seldom explain what they mean. There's a reason for this: While few would argue against the notion that it makes sense to bet on teams that have a better chance of winning than their odds suggest, there's no foolproof way to identify those teams. Pick a game and ask two handicappers which team represents the "value." You'll find that they often don't agree. The word itself is very subjective and has different meanings to different people. Tim believes that "sports-betting value" is found in any opportunity which is profitable over the long-term.

Unlike anyone else, he's developed and honed an entirely unique way of identifying it. Having sought out and worked with some of the top Data Intelligence minds on the planet, Tim has created his own Key Value Indicators (KVI) which go a step beyond the standard Key Performance Indicators (KPI) used by others. Tim's proprietary methodology produces a projected score for every game on the board. Tim's approach has been so successful that he walked away from a successful corporate career to pursue his "quest for value" on a full-time basis. What to Expect 100% Honesty and Transparency Respect for Others 1500-2000 Plays (Sides + Totals) Annually 1-10 Plays Daily (Avg 4-7) Majority of ML Plays are Underdogs No Large Favorites "Less Chalk" Tasteful Promotion and Less Hype Projected Score with Every Play Money Management / Ratings Tim is fanatical about strict money-management.

He rates his plays on a 5-10 star basis and suggests the following in terms of unit-size: 10* = 1% of bankroll 9* = 0.9% of bankroll 8* = 0.8% of bankroll 7* = 0.7% of bankroll 6* = 0.6% of bankroll 5* = 0.5% of bankroll

Will Rogers started sports handicapping professionally in 2013. Five years in University and thirty-five years in the workforce, including 15 years of College/University level instruction, research, analysis and critical writing were all very transferable skills. I learned how to work hard and handle pressure in high end kitchens. First and foremost came a love for professional sports. Some of my earliest and fondest memories are of televised World Series and New Years Day bowl games. I can't remember a workplace between the months of April and October without a soundtrack of the boys of summer on the radio. I am dating myself, but a long history and familiarity with a sport counts in the scheme of things.

I shifted into professional handicapping via fantasy sports and league pools. It was win-win for me, and combined my passion for sports with my interest and success as a researcher. While conservative in approach, I had some surprising success in fantasy leagues. It wasn't a long jump to take handicapping on as a profession.

Will Rogers Sports began as a larger team, but in the last couple of years, I have taken over much of the research and writing personally. I am your man for NFL, NHL and MLB, my three particular fascinations. I complement my knowledge and partner up to give Will Rogers Sports a complete, consistent and successful package across all major sports.

When choosing a handicapper, the most important consideration is "what have they done lately?" It is an unforgiving business, and all the past achievements count for nothing compared to recent success. That said, a track record can be valuable when choosing a handicapper. In the 2021-22 NFL Season Will Rogers had an impressive 69.4% record including an 11-2 NFL Playoffs win streak!

At Will Rogers Sports we pride ourselves on consistency, which comes down to our ability to interpret all currently available research. On any given day, favorites will fail, bums will find the limelight briefly and stars will flash and burn. Our role as handicappers is to successfully isolate the winners for that day. We deliver 3-5 plays a day, more if we believe in them. We do the work with no smoke and mirrors, and are our own worst critics.

#		Units
1	Tom Macrina	+512.00
2	Will Rogers	+483.00
3	Trent Pruittt	+465.00
4	Mike Lundin	+450.00
5	Kevin V.	+448.00