I'm on Denver -3 @ Dallas for these reasons:

- Denver are 3-0 straight up and ATS vs Dallas the last 3 meetings.

- Luka Doncic is questionable to play due to an hamstring injury. As well as missing bench players Brandon Williams, Josh Green and Dante Exum.

- The depth of the Nuggets still has the edge over Dallas, with more proven players and coaching.

- Dallas are 23rd in overall defensive metrics and Denver are 7th. Luka (if active) will be the focus of the defense and they have players like Caldwell Pope and Aaron Gordon to defensively cause problems for him.

- The Mavericks also play at a pace that fits the Denver gameplan, which is possession by possession. This requires efficient shooting to succeed, and Dallas are the more efficient team offensively.

- Nuggets have won and covered the last 4 road games and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

Official Play: Nuggets -3

Side Bet: Under 225.5

Hail Mary: Kyrie Irving Under 25.5 points