Im on the over of 48.5 in this divisional Bills @ Dolphins game for these reasons:

- Firstly, I think the Bills win this game. And they have the more susceptible defense. Looking back to the win over Arizona, Buffalo allowed Kyler Murray to throw 67% of passes and a TD with 0 interceptions. Tua is a more elite QB under center and more accurate in the pocket. He should have just as efficient of a night passing as Kyler did but with more yardage, given the blatant better pass-catchers at his disposal.

- Dolphins likely won’t have Devon Achane tonight. This considerably contributes to the over, as Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr are not the same type of RB as Achane in terms of explosiveness. In order for the Dolphins to gain chunks in this game, it’ll need to be through the air and through Tyreek on handoffs and dump offs.

- Bills are up against a dolphins team with 2 stud Cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, as well as safety and Ex Bills player Jordan Poyer. What worries me about that unit, is that they are man coverage guys, and when Josh Allen leaves the pocket as he normally does, it’s going to leave gaps in the middle of the field and opportunity for scrambling downfield passes. The ability for both teams to keep drives alive, is only going to increase this full game total.

Official Play: Over 48.5 points

Side Bet: Josh Allen over 37.5 Rushing yards

Hail Mary: Bills Moneyline