Im on the over 226.5 in this Kings @ Heat game for these reasons:

- Kings are 5th in field goal efficiency and in points per game, but they are not a good defensive team especially on the road, allowing 125 point per game average away from home.

- Heat are playing good defense at home, but haven’t played efficient shooting teams like the kings yet, in Miami. They’ve only played the Magic, Knicks, and the Pistons at home. Those are slower paced teams compared to the Kings who play at a quicker speed which means there’s more possessions to be had in this game for both sides, and with the away team having the worse defense, there’s going to be opportunities for the Heat to hit the 120 mark offensively. This game is a 3 point spread, so if I see the Heat scoring over 115, and I believe that the kings have an opportunity to upset the Heat, then I also see Sacramento scoring 115+ as well which gives us our over.

Official play: Over 226.50

Side Bet: Kings +2.5

Hail Mary: Kevin Huerter over 1.5 3pt shots made