Dortmund is coming into this match with a heavy trend to the over in their recent matches. They have seen 3+ goals total in their last 6 straight matches and they have gone over 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches. Their attack has been on fire in these as they have scored at least 4 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches as well as at least 3 goals in 4 of their last 6 matches. Their defense has not been great though, allowing at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches as well. When playing at home, they have gone over 3 goals in their last 3 straight matches there and they have scored at least 4 goals themselves in all 3 of those matches. Their defense has also allowed at least 2 goals in 2 of those 3 matches and have allowed at least 1 goal in all 3. The last time Dortmund came out of an international break, they won at home over Heidenheim 4-2 as well. They are going up against a newly promoted St Pauli side that has also been trending to the over in recent matches. They have seen 3+ goals total in their last 3 straight matches and they have been in awful form this season as well. Their defense has been conceding a lot of goals, allowing at least 3 goals in each of their last 2 as well as 3 of their last 5 matches. When playing away from home, they have actually been trending more to the over as they have seen 3+ goals total in their last 3 away matches and have gone over 3 goals in 2 of those. Their attack has also been better in those matches as they have scored at least 1 goal in each of those 3, scoring 5 goals in their last 2 away matches alone. The last time they came back from an international break, they lost away from home against Augsburg 3-1. Dortmund has a big Champions League match against Real Madrid next week but they will want to get back in form from the international break with a good performance here at home. This is a match where they can score 4 goals themselves, but their defense cannot be trusted either so it would not be shocking to see St Pauli find the net with the way they have been scoring away from home recently. Between these two sides, there will be enough goals in this match to push it over 3 goals.
Germany Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund/St Pauli over 3 goals, Rot. 202509