Bowling Green has most of their team playing in this matchup and did not lose key players to the portal but they are without RB Ta'ron Keith who put up the numbers this season. This will impact them somewhat but they still have a solid defense intact for this bowl game. They also beat the Gophers the last time they played in 2021, 14-10 in Minneapolis so this is definitely a revenge game for the Gophers. As far as motivation goes, both have it in this spot, but Minnesota under P J Fleck probably wants it more. Minnesota gets to play in this bowl game with a 5-7 record this season as the committee did not have enough 6 game win teams. Minnesota will play without their star quaterback who has entered the portal and instead have third string Cole Kramer at quarterback position. They have lost a lot to the portal but they still have their star RB Darius Taylor who has opted to play in this game. Bowling green hasn't played the strongest of schedules this season but has done well with their defensive game and are weakest on offense. Minnesota has done well against MAC teams in the last few seasons and still have the better quality talent despite the portal losses. They also have their coach intact, Fleck, who is good at scheming up ways to win bowl games as he is 4-0 in bowl games. He is the type of coach that will keep his players motivated for this game and will want to revenge the loss they suffered to Bowling Green. Bowling Green can't stop the run and that is what the Gophers do well. They also can't run the ball as good as the Gophers. The Falcons defend the pass better but the Gophers won't have to have rely on QB Kramer do a lot of that as he just needs to pass the ball on plays. BG does struggle on third down conversions percentage as they are ranked 114th which is awful. If one looks at the Falcons wins for the season they are against much weaker teams like Akron, WMU, Kent State and Ball State. Despite only winning five games, the Gopher's wins are against quality programs like Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan State, Louisiana Lafayette, and they lost by one point to Illinois. All in all, the Gophers have the better program being the major school, the better coaching and talent level to win this game, plus they have had time to practice and come up with a game plan. The motivation is there for this team to win this game to salvage their season and get their revenge. This score should be around 21-17 for Minnesota.

BG are 1-2 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Bowling Green are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference. Minnesota are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the MAC conference. BG are 0-1 ATS this season and 0-4 ATS in the last three seasons after a bye week.

Best bet: lay the small number with Minnesota.