Both pitchers in this game are going to give up some runs. Logan Allen played terribly in his last few games and gave up more than he should have and is very untrustworthy in this spot to have a solid game. The last time he pitched against Houston last season, there were 19 runs in that game and Cleveland gave up nine of them, and his ERA against Houston is 7.50. On the flip side, Spencer Arrigehtti has played terribly for the Astros so far this season and he just is giving up way too much in his starts, his control is not there and he is in very bad form. Expect Cleveland, who are playing well, to get a bunch of runs off of him today, and that is why the total in this game is going to sail to the Over. Cleveland are 9-2 to the Over against AL West opponents this season, while Logan Allen has pitched to the over in five of his last six starts. There is value for bettors to take the Over.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.