Baltimore has taken a strangle hold in this series as the Rays struggle with their bullpen and offense. Baltimore has put up a ton of runs in this series while their offense is hot. Pepiot has been decent for the Rays this season but he got roughed up in his last start and he is starting to show some control issues. Pepiot has struggled at home too, going 1-2 with an ERA of 5.24. This is the wrong team to be having issues with and the Orioles will get to him. Burnes has been solid for Baltimore with an ERA of 2.62, giving up very little and will pitch deep into the game. The Rays at home are 11-27 in covering the spread and the Orioles are 21-10 covering the runline on the road, so taking them on the runline is good value as they have been all season. The Orioles are more trustworthy to wrap up this game with their bullpen late if need be. The Orioles keep rolling in this spot.

Best bet: take the Baltimore Orioles on the runline (RL).