The Bills were lucky to get the win against Arizona in Week 1, and that kind of exposed them. Yes they are 3-0 but they haven’t played anyone great. Arizona, a team with decent defense, tested the Bills early with a dual threat QB in Murray. The Bills also played a very bad Jags team on life support and a Tua-less Miami team. The Ravens, however, have been tested by playing the Chiefs and almost winning, Seattle and Green Bay, all good teams and could easily be 3-0. Lamar when he’s a favorite of three points or less is 23-7 straight up. They are also at home and this is a revenge game because Buffalo beat them in their house 23-20 two seasons ago. They have circled this game and have the talent and skill to beat this Bills team. Josh Allen has played three games without throwing a pick or turning the ball over yet which is remarkable. Lamar has really good numbers throwing the ball into zone coverage, is good under pressure and this Bills defense will see an even better dual threat quarterback in this game along with Derek Henry, a lethal combo who are averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. The Bills also played on Monday night and are on a short week with travel. The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Baltimore. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Bills are 0-1 ATS after playing on Monday night football on the road. The Ravens are 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who are scoring 24 or more points per game.

Best bet: lay the points with Baltimore.