The Padres have seen Skubal this season and he didn’t do well against the Astros as the team lost the game. Skubal has been better at home this season. His road ERA is 5.69 for 2024 with a WHIP of 1.106 and against the Astros his ERA is 4.26. Valdez has been solid for the Astros and was very instrumental in the second half of the season in getting his team into the postseason. His career ERA versus Detroit is 2.49 in 8 games pitched. This veteran Astros team has been here before, many times, they have batters that can hit Skubal well, and their experience will come through as they take this first game in this Wild Card series. The Astros dominated the series against the Tigers this season and should have the edge at home with a bullpen ERA of 366 as well.

Best bet: take the Astros on the moneyline (ML) up to -1.