Coming off a dominating win over the Eagles on Sunday, this feels like a natural spot to fade the Bucs at the top and back a solid Falcons team playing their third straight home game. Contrary to the "primetime Kirk" narrative, the veteran QB is actually 8-3 ATS in his last 11 primetime games. I like his chances to move the ball at ease against a questionable Tampa secondary.

Out of respect for the stellar play of Baker Mayfield and the Bucs' offense, we will play this safe and take the moneyline, but laying the 1.5 points is also a solid option for those looking for reduced juice.