Dayton and Cincinnati bring elite defenses into this matchup, making the Under 139 an attractive play. Dayton boasts one of the nation’s top defensive units, allowing just 58.3 points per game, ranking 7th nationally. Their slow, methodical pace, averaging just 65.1 possessions per game, keeps scoring opportunities limited for both teams. Cincinnati also emphasizes defense, allowing just 63.7 points per game (47th nationally) while playing a controlled style that rarely turns into high-scoring affairs. Offensively, while Dayton averages 70.3 points per game and Cincinnati 72.9, both have struggled to meet those numbers against elite defensive opponents like they’ll face here.

Recent trends strongly favor the Under, with Dayton hitting it in 5 of their last 6 games and Cincinnati also trending towards lower-scoring contests in tough matchups. Historically, when these two teams met last season, the total points scored were 131, well under the current line of 139. The neutral site adds another wrinkle, often creating unfamiliar shooting environments and slower paces. Considering both teams’ defensive strength, deliberate styles, and the history of low-scoring contests, the Under 139 is a strong play for this matchup