#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season! The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start. Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season. He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons! The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him. The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies. 7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined. That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season. The hosts should roll big in this one. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it!