#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it!