#457/458 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Browns + vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 PM ET - In Week 1 we will back this Divisional Underdog which falls into a very profitable system dating back several years. In the last eight years if you had blindly bet Divisional Dogs in Wk #1, you would have produced a 31-13-2 ATS record or 70.4% returns. Cleveland is a team that we feel could be a contender in the AFC with a loaded roster on both sides of the football. Much of the Browns success will hinge on QB Deshaun Watson and how quickly he becomes the player he was in Houston. In case you’ve forgotten, Watson threw for over 12,800 yards in three seasons with the Texans with 85 TD’s and 28 INT’s. He also rushed for over 400 yards in those same three years. He’s got one of the best running backs in football with Nick Chubb who rushed for over 1,500 yards last season. Defensively the Browns will be a top 10 unit in our opinion by season’s end. They added Za’Darious Smith and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson along with a new defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz. In 5 seasons with the Eagles, Schwartz produced a pair of top five defenses and his units never finished worse than 15th. Bengals QB Joe Burrow comes into this season the same way he did last season. He missed the preseason action with an injury a year ago and it showed in the opening few weeks of the season. In the opener last year he was outplayed by Steelers QB Trubisky when he threw 4 INT’s and was just 33 of 53 passing with 338 yards. There is a ton of hype surrounding the Bengals and they will again be an explosive offense once Burrow gets settled in, but their defense isn’t top 15 in our preseason rankings. The Bengals D allowed 337YPG (17th) and 5.4YPPL (16th) last season but benefited from +1.5 takeaways per game which was 8th best in the NFL. We like the Browns to be a surprise contender this season and we won’t be shocked when they win this game outright.