ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 43 – Cincinnati @ Cleveland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

We like the value here as this total opened 46 and we’re now seeing 43. Our advice would be to play this NOW as we expect the total to head back up on Thursday. Look for the Cleveland offense and new HC Stefanski (former Minnesota OC) to come out with a chip on their shoulder on Thursday night after being held to 6 points last week @ Baltimore. They go from facing a top 5 defense to a middle of the pack at best defense which will help the offense. Cleveland’s defense last week allowed nearly 7.0 YPP to the Ravens and while we don’t expect that from the Bengals, they should have success moving the ball with Joe Burrow now at QB (193 yards passing & 46 yards rushing last week). The Chargers offense, with new QB Tyrod Taylor, actually moved the ball pretty well on the Bengals after the first few series. They were held on downs twice inside Cincy territory and missed a FG so their 16 points was a bit deceiving. The Chargers only punted twice after their first 3 series so they had chances to score points but didn’t. This has been a fairly high scoring series as of late with the last 5 meetings getting to at least 44 points. The average point total in the last 5 meetings is 49 PPG. In last year’s 2 meetings the offenses combined to average 6.0 yards per play while scoring 56 & 46 points. Now that this one is down to 43, we like the OVER.