#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – New Orleans @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These two met earlier this year and the total was set at 48.5 points. That final score was Bucs 43, Saints 34 so it went way over the total. Thus, this total is set nearly a full FG higher. The first final score between these 2 was quite misleading. Tampa had 310 total yards and New Orleans had only 271 and neither averaged 5.0 YPP. There were 9 scoring possessions in that game and 4 of them came on drives of less than 45 yards and TB scored on a pick 6. Last Sunday was the first top 10 defense the Saints have faced since their season opener vs TB and they scored just 23 points (in regulation) vs Chicago. The Bucs have also faced just 1 top 10 defense since playing the Saints and they scored just 19 points in that game. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in efficiency defense (Football Outsiders) and total defense. The Tampa defense ranks #1 in the NFL in efficiency (Football Outsiders) and they’ve held 6 of their 8 opponents to 23 points or less. The Saints defense is ranked 8th in the NFL in efficiency and they’ve held 5 of their 8 opponents to 27 points or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in 7 straight games which has helped push this total higher than it should be in our opinion. It’s projected to be rainy and windy on Sunday evening in Tampa which will help limit scoring opportunities. 9 of the last 12 meeting between these 2 NFC South rival @ Tampa have gone under the total. With Tampa favored by -4.5 here the projected final is TB 28 and NO 23. We think both teams land under those numbers. We like the UNDER on Sunday Night.