#466 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee +6 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - People continue to view this year’s Baltimore team as the equivalent of last year’s Baltimore team. That simply isn’t the case. This year’s version of the Ravens is only +25 YPG and already has 3 losses. Last year’s team was +115 YPG and lost only 2 games during the regular season. They are coming off a loss @ New England vs a Patriot team that entered the game on a 1-4 run with their only win coming by just 3 points vs the Jets. The Ravens are 2-2 their last 4 games but aren’t that far from sitting at 0-4 over the stretch. Their 2 wins came over Indy & Philly. They were outgained in both games, beat the Eagles by just 2 points and while the margin of the Indy game was 14 points, Baltimore benefitted from a 65 yard fumble return for a TD which was probably at least a 10 point turnaround if not 14. We’re getting some solid value with the Titans here. They began the year 5-0 but because they have now lost 3 of their last 4, they are getting nearly a full TD here. Tennessee has opened as a favorite in every game this year with the exception of their game vs Buffalo where they were +3 and won the game 42-16. The Titans already know the formula to beat Baltimore as they handled the Ravens 28-10 in the playoffs last year rushing for 213 yards. They should have success on the ground here vs a Ravens team that has been outrushed in 3 of their last 4 games and is allowing 4.5 YPC (21st in the NFL). Baltimore has been overvalued this year as they are just 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as a favorite. We expect a tight game and we’ll grab the points.