#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -14 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season. Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough. Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team. He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games. He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season. The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards. Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game. Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU. What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball. They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground. That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task. Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts. On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding. The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense. IU will not be able to run the ball in this game. Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one. We don’t see that happening. Wisconsin is fresh for this one. They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled. HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern. In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession. Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team. They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons. Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers. The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards. Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game. With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation. On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break. We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number. With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16. We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points. Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s.