#102 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia +4 over Washington, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Washington has to win so we should be on them correct? Wrong. That’s one big mistake bettors make is just automatically taking teams that have to win. That’s actually proven to be not always a wise investment. In fact, Teams that need to win in Week 17 to get into the playoffs (or would need help with a loss) have gone 15-23 (39.5%) against the spread (ATS) when playing teams with zero incentive. The teams that have to win can often be tight and have added pressure which can negative affect on their performance vs a team that has nothing to lose. Plus, in this game, we’re not talking about a top notch team vs a crappy team. Both of these teams were alive to win the NFC East just one week ago. Philly was knocked out of contention by Dallas while Washington was losing at home to Carolina but they still control their own destiny. Who plays QB for Washington in this game? They were hoping Alex Smith would be back but he was very limited in practice at the end of the week with a calf injury. If he goes he won’t be near 100% with little mobility. If he doesn’t, it’s Taylor Heinicke who has attempted only 77 passes in his career. That’s a lot of pressure on a guy who has very little experience or a QB with a bad leg (Smith). The Eagles jumped out to a 14-3 lead @ Dallas last week but come up short. Their most recent home game was a 24-21 win over one of the best teams in the NFL, the Saints. Since taking over at QB Jalen Hurts has thrown for 850 yards & 6 TD’s to go along with 240 yards rushing. He’s given a nice spark to an offense that had scored 17 or less in 5 straight games before he took over. Eagles are 3-0 ATS as a home dog this year covering vs all playoff teams (Baltimore, New Orleans, & Seattle). Washington, on the other hand, hasn’t been a road favorite once this season and shouldn’t be here. This look ahead line last week was Philly -3 so this number has swung a full 5.5 to 6 points based on last week’s results. The Eagles were favored by 10.5 at home vs the Cowboys and 5.5 at home vs the NY Giants, the other 2 teams in contention for the NFC East. Now they are getting points from Washington? Bad line and we’ll take Philly to win this game at home. Take the points.