#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – Tampa Bay @ Green Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were waiting on the weather here and it now looks like it will actually be perfect. Snow ending early in the morning and light winds by game time. We like an easy Over here between these two high powered offenses. The Bucs have the 2nd best offense in the NFL in terms of yards per point as on average it takes them just 12.6 yards to score 1-point. The #1 rated team in that category is Green Bay who takes just 12.4-yards per point. The Buccaneers average 30.7PPG on the season while the Packers put up 31.8PPG which ranks them in the top two of the NFL. These two teams just faced the Rams and Saints who had two of the better defensive units in the NFL and they both put up 30+ points each. Green Bay’s defense has been ‘average’ all season long and currently rank 17th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. In their last ten games the Packers have faced seven teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive DVOA so their recent defensive statistics are skewed. Now they face a Bucs team that is 3rd in the NFL in DVOA. Green Bay is 19th in yards per point defensively, Tampa Bay is 13th. Tampa Bay has some misleading defensive numbers of their own as they’ve given up 20 or more points in eight of their last ten games and one of the games, they didn’t allow 20+ was against a bad Lions offense. The Bucs recently have allowed 23-points to an anemic Washington offense and 27 points twice to Atlanta who averaged 13.9 yards per point against them. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to do. Packers have scored at least 30 points in 13 of their 17 games this season and Tampa has scored at least 24 points in 15 of their 18 games on the year. The Packers worst game offensively this year, by far, was at Tampa but they did score 10 points on their first 2 drives before turnovers did them in. In that game, Aaron Rodgers threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6 and completed only 45% of his passes – he completed at least 60% in every other game this season. It was just the 5th time since 2013 that Rodgers hit on less than 50% of his passes in a game. He was under constant pressure getting sacked 4 times and hit 13 times. Just one of the worst performances of his career. That kind of stuff motivates him and we expect him to play great on Sunday. Can the OLine give him time? We absolutely believe so as they played great last week vs a Rams defense that came in ranked #1 in sack percentage. Rodgers was not sacked once in the game and he was only hit 1 time. Tampa’s offense is also playing as well as they have all season scoring at least 30 in 5 straight games. Both of these teams have the ability to hit 30 points. With the spread set at GB -3.5, the final score is expected to be in the range of 28-24. GB scored 32 last week vs a Rams defense that is better than this TB stop unit. We could argue the score could have been worse than 32-18 last week as the Packers scored on their first 5 possessions vs the #1 defense in the NFL and only punted twice. We anticipate GB topping 30 here which means Tampa won’t actually have to go crazy on offense to get this OVER 52 points. Play the OVER here.