#621 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +12.5 over UNLV, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is too many points in what we expect will be a low scoring game (total as of this writing is 129). These 2 met twice this year and both games involved very few possessions (93 & 95 possessions) and nothing will change. Air Force is one of the slowest tempo teams in the country (352nd out of 357) and UNLV prefers to play slow as well ranking 9th in the MWC in pace. UNLV played host to both meetings this season and won by 5 & 10 points. The largest lead the Rebels had in either game was 14. The Falcons have had some extra time off as well to get ready for this one having last played on March 1st. UNLV played on the 3rd and the 6th of March and are now playing again on the 10th. The Rebs struggle offensively and often don’t even get into the 70’s which will make it tough to cover a number like this. They’ve been held under 70 points in 11 of their last 12 games including both games vs Air Force as we mentioned above. The Falcons rank 4th in the MWC in eFG% and facing a UNLV defense that is last in the league at defending the arc, Air Force made 24 of their 53 attempts from deep (45%) in their 2 games vs the Rebs this season. That’s a recipe for staying in this game and making it very difficult for UNLV to cover. If you throw out their games vs the very top tier teams in the MWC (CSU, Boise, Utah St, and San Diego St), Air Force has been competitive. They only have 3 double digit losses in their other 12 games vs the rest of the league. UNLV has been favored by 12 or more points only 5 times this entire season. They are 1-4 ATS in those games. We look for this game to be played in the 60’s and the points are very valuable in that situation. We like Air Force.