#977/978 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:15 PM ET - After falling short with this play yesterday we will come right back with it today. The wind will be blowing out toward center at a good clip for this one on a warm summer evening at Fenway Park. With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs. The Yankees Jordan Montgomery did not make it out of the 6th inning in either of his last two road starts and he gave up 8 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings while allowing 17 baserunners (13 hits and 4 walks). Montgomery also allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 and 2 / 3 innings in his most recent start at Fenway Park. The Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi in this one. The right-hander has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts and gave up 9 runs (8 earned) in less than 10 innings in the two starts in which he struggled. Also, Eovaldi has a 7.15 ERA with 4 homers allowed in his last 2 starts against the Yankees. Our computer math model is indicating he will struggle again here so the Yankees should score their fair share of runs. However, the Red Sox have now won all 4 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game. :In other words, the total looks like the value play here and the over is 9-5 in the last 14 games between these teams at Fenway Park. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over