#277 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Buffalo -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Bills. They are already 0-1 after losing at home to the Steelers last week and really can’t afford to drop to 0-2. We were on Pittsburgh last week but Buffalo did outgain them by over 100 yards and didn’t trail until the 4th quarter. The Steelers had a blocked punt for a TD in the final quarter which completely turned the game around. Buffalo was able to run the ball effectively (4.7 YPC) vs a top notch Pittsburgh defense AND without their top RB Moss. He is back this week and we look for a balanced offense to give the Fins big problems. Miami picked up a 17-16 win @ New England but the fact is they were thoroughly outplayed in that game. The Pats outgained the Fins by 130 yards, had 8 more FD’s and a 13 minute time of possession edge. The Dolphins defense allowed almost 400 yards to a New England team starting a rookie QB. Fumbles killed New England last week including one on the Miami 11-yard line late in the game as the Patriots were moving in for the go ahead score. Buffalo has owned Miami winning 4 straight by an average score of 38-23 with the Bills scoring at least 30 points in all 4 games. We have a big edge at QB with Josh Allen over Tua in this game. In Allen’s 6-stars vs Miami he is 5-1 with almost 1,600 yards passing and 17 TD’s. We had Miami as a team that would regress in 2021 after they made the playoffs last year despite getting outgained by more than a half yard per play (-0.6 YPP differential). We hate to use the word must win this early in the season but Buffalo is approaching the game in that way. The better team backed into a corner here laying only a FG is definitely worth a play.