#117 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa +3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ll keep this one simple. Two poor offenses vs two top 10 type defenses. We don’t expect either team to have much success running the ball with Wisconsin’s defense allowing 1.9 YPC and Iowa’s allowing 2.7 YPC. Neither QB is great but we do trust Iowa’s Petras more than Wisconsin’s Mertz. Petras had a poor game 2 weeks ago at home vs Purdue with 4 interceptions but prior to that he had thrown 9 TD’s and 2 picks on the season. He at least gives the Hawkeyes a threat in the passing game averaging 190 YPG through the air. Mertz is a turnover machine. He has only 2 TD’s to go along with 7 picks & 4 fumbles on the season. He’s completed a total of 31 passes in his last 4 games. The Badgers have not threatened opposing teams in the passing game and don’t expect it here. This one looks like a low scoring slugfest (total set at 36) which may come down to turnovers. If that’s the case, while hard to project, we’d have to favor Iowa in that category. The Hawkeyes have forced 20 takeaways on the season and their turnover margin is +1.57 per game which is 3rd nationally. Wisconsin ranks 122nd in that stat at -1.00 per game. Possessions will be huge here and if Iowa can gain an extra possession or 2 that could be the difference. Much is being made of Wisconsin winning @ Purdue while Iowa lost at home vs Purdue the previous week. Let’s remember Iowa was coming off a HUGE game at home vs Penn State (an Iowa win) while Purdue was off a bye going into Iowa City. It was a perfect spot for the Boilers and we were on them. Last week Wisconsin caught Purdue off their huge win @ Iowa and took advantage of it. Here we get Iowa off a loss and coming in off a bye which is a great spot situationally. Even if the Badgers win which will be tough, this could very well be a 13-10, 16-13, 17-14 or 20-17 type game. Iowa is the play here.