ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – NY Jets @ Indianapolis, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This under sets up nicely. The Jets offense has been poor all season averaging 16 PPG. Prior to last week’s offensive outburst vs Cincinnati (34 points – highest of the year) the Jets were averaging 13.3 PPG and had topped 20 points only once all season. Now they face the 5th rated defense DVOA and we expect a big drop off in this game. Last week NY QB White threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s. We expect a huge regression now that the Colts have 1.5 games of film on him. There is a reason White was drafted in 2018 and his first start in the NFL was last week. He’s only played in 2 games in his career. The Colts defense has played a number of higher ranked offenses this season (Rams, Titans, Ravens) and given up some points. However, they lower third of the NFL offenses they’ve faced this year (Texans & Dolphins) they’ve allowed an average of just 10 PPG. NYJ offense ranks 28th DVOA so they are in the same tier as those 2 teams. On offense we expect Indy to run the ball tonight. The Jets defense ranks 23rd DVOA at stopping the run and Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in the biz. After leading for much of the game last week and relying to heavily on QB Wentz, who threw 2 terrible interceptions late in the game and in OT, the game plan will be run heavy. We also look for Indy’s offense – one of the slower paced teams in the league (25th) – to control the clock and shorten this game. This total is tied for the Jets highest number of the season. Their game vs Atlanta whose defense (30th DVOA defense) is nowhere near as good as Indy’s was 46 as well. That game finished 27-20 so 1 point Over when the NYJ kicked a FG with 17 seconds remaining in the game. This total is an overreaction to what the NYJ offense did last week with a QB nobody had seen play. Under is the play here.