#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl.