#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover.