#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies and he’s been outstanding all season. His ERA is 3.48 but his xERA and xFIP are much lower telling us he’s pitching even better than his already solid ERA. He averages 10 K’s per 9 innings and just 1 walk so baserunners will be few for the Nationals on Saturday. Nola has faced current Washington hitters for nearly 100 career plate appearances and held them to a batting average of only .190. The Washington offense ranks 22nd in RPG, 20th in OPS, and 28th in HR’s. At home they average just 3.7 RPG and vs right handers that drops to 3.0 RPG. Gray is on the hill for the Nats and while he’s pitched better over his last few games he’s been a bit lucky to keep his ERA at 4.33. His FIP is 5.43 and he’s stranded 83% of the batters which have reached base which is well above the league average of 70% meaning his ERA could be quite a bit higher had he not gotten a bit lucky with his LOB% numbers. His ERA at home is north of 7.00 and he’s struggled with control walking over 4 per 9 innings. Gray gives up a ton of HR’s (2 per 9 innings) which is a terrible match up vs this red hot Philadelphia offense that is 3rd in MLB averaging 1.33 HR’s per game. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games and over the last 10 they have a batting average of .289 while averaging 6 RPG. Philly has won 10 straight games vs the Nationals and 12 of the last 13 in Washington. We like the Phillies to win this one by 2+ runs vs the struggling Nationals who have an 11-24 record at home this season.