#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5.