#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday.