#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -115 over Washington, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason that an undefeated top 5 team is an underdog in this game. They should be. Washington has been primed to get “upset’ for a good month now and we think this is where they go down. Washington is overvalued right now having only covered 1 of their last 6 games. In those 6 games they are -47 points to the spread so losing to the spread by an average of about 8 PPG and of their 10 wins, 6 have come by 10 points or less. The Huskies have also been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and their defense is in a freefall allowing an average of 455 YPG over their last 5 games. Last week at home the struggled to beat Utah winning by a TD despite running 18 more offensive snaps and getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 6.1 YPP. On Saturday they get an Oregon State team that is simply lights out at home. In fact, since the start of the 2021 season, the Beavers have played 17 home games and covered 16 of those games! This year alone they beat 2 very good Pac 12 teams, UCLA and Utah, by double digits at home. We expect OSU to control the line of scrimmage here with the much better running game (9th nationally averaging 5.4 YPC) vs a Washington team that has been outrushed on a YPC basis in 5 straight games. The Beavers are playing very well right now having won 5 of their last 6 games with their only loss coming @ a red hot Arizona team by 3 points, a game OSU outgained Zona both on the ground and through the air. Despite their 8-2 record compared to Washington’s 10-0 record, the Beavers actually have a better YPG differential at +120 to the Huskies +93 YPG. We think this sets up very nicely for a dominant home team to get a win over an overvalued undefeated team. Take Oregon State.