#1/2 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Toronto needs to respond on home ice here to avoid an 0-2 hole in this series. Certainly the Maple Leafs have the firepower on offense to do just that. The problem is that their goaltending just can not be trusted. Matt Murray is still out (concussion recovery) which means little-used Joseph Woll is the only option behind Ilya Samsonov right now for Toronto. That said, Samsonov is getting the start again tonight but he allowed 6 goals in the Game 1 loss to the high-powered Lightning. This is why we like the over so much here. We are confident that the Leafs are going to come out strong in this critical Game 2 match-up but how can anyone trust their goaltending? Year after year it is a problem for Toronto and ends up being their downfall in the post-season. That said, let's not forget that game one was a 3-2 game with 6 minutes to go in the 2nd period before the Leafs fell apart. The point is they can come out and compete hard here but they are going to have to score plenty to top the Lightning here. Don't be surprised if each club scores at least 3 goals here as this one flies over the total. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals in last 9 games dating back to late March. 13 of the Maple Leafs last 16 home games have totaled at least 6 goals and those games have averaged 7 goals! Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is a great goalie but he was not as dominant this season and also has allowed 13 goals in his last 3 starts. Over is our play here.