#911/912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 7.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. We get a lower total here because the Yankees are still without Aaron Judge in the lineup and the fact the Yankees have not been great offensively. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. The Rays won yesterday's game 5-4 and are 27-6 on the season and 18-2 at home. Tampa Bay has scored more runs than any team in the majors and is averaging 6.5 runs per game thus far.  Of course this is a big reason they are the #1 team in the majors so far this season.  The Yankees have scored 4 runs in each of last 3 games and they could surprise here.  The scheduled starters are Drew Rasmussen for the Rays and Domingo German for the Yankees.  Note that Rasmussen has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts.  In his most recent start he was allowing a lot of hard contact.  Even many of the outs were very hard hit balls.  A couple of double plays and working out of jams prevented his day from being even worse.  Rasmussen has now had just 1 good start the last 4 and has allowed 13 earned runs in 14 innings in the other 3 starts.  As for Yankees starter German, he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts.  The New York right-hander is off a strong start but, prior to this, he had allowed 10 earned runs in 12 innings in his 2 prior starts and allowed 5 homers in those two starts.  German is still getting strikeouts but when he is giving up contact it has included many balls getting crushed.  Historically he has certainly been less than dominant in his starts at Tropicana Field too.  Considering the above factors, this total is too low.  Yes, these are two solid bullpens.  However, 21 of the Rays last 30 games (70%!) have totaled at least 8 runs.  Tampa Bay is just so powerful at home and Yankees should be good for at least 4 runs again today and, of course, the Rays are a big money line favorite for a reason!  Over is the call in this one Saturday afternoon.