#951 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping with losses in 9 of last 14 games and the Reds actually have won 5 of 6 but the wins came on the road and Cincinnati is just 2-5 last 7 games at home. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring the Reds back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, he has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 9 starts. In his last 54 innings of work he has been excellent in striking out 53! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Reds are expected to start Brandon Williamson (5.02 ERA) but this is also a play against situation the way we see it as Cincinnati is 6-13 last 19 against the Brewers plus 13-24 against right-handed starters this season. As for Reds starter Williamson, he was 1-5 with 4.07 ERA at AAA level last season and 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA this season at the AAA level. He had some success in his MLB debut this season but has struggled in each of the two starts since and we look for the fade to continue for Williamson in this outing. 6 of last 7 Reds losses have been by at least a 2-run margin and 71% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.