#925/926 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 8 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - This is a contrarian play but we are already happy to see additional value here as, unsurprisingly, a total that opened at 8.5 has dropped to an 8 nearly everywhere.  We understand what the betting markets are looking at here but the odds makers had the better assessment.  That being said, we are riding with the over in this one because the Tigers, though off a tough road trip, have been a different club when at home this season. In last two dozen games at home, Detroit is a respectable 14-10.  Of the Tigers 19 home games dating back to late April, 14 of the 19 have totaled at least 8 runs.  There is simply too much value here to pass up.  Lorenzen has solid numbers as a starting pitcher for the Tigers this season but last season he had a 4.24 ERA and the year before he had a 5.59 ERA.  We are not completely sold on him just yet.  Also, the Diamondbacks slugging percentage in road games this season ranks 6th in the majors!  Both of these bullpens have only mediocre stats so far this season.  Arizona starting pitcher Kelly is throwing well but, throughout his career, his ERA numbers have been higher on the road than at home.  So far this season Kelly has fantastic numbers on the road in his 4 starts away from home but there will be a regression to the mean.  It starts here as Tigers bounce back at the plate with a return to home.  Arizona has won 17 of 24 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch.  Tigers match them run for run here.  Warm temps in Detroit this evening and should be a perfect situation for a higher scoring game then most are expecting here. We like Over the total in this one.