#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had.  It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8.  Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story.  The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48.  Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin.   The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break.  Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games.  Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games.  42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin.  Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season.  The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start.  His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings.  Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish.  The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home.  Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance.  In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings!  Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup.  The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it!