#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 57 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Liberty, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - MTSU has been facing all out passing teams as of late and that is their weakness defensively. 3 of their last 4 opponents are pass first offenses (CSU, La Tech, and WKY all rank 110th or lower in rush offense) while MTSU’s defense ranks outside the top 110 in pass defense. Now they face a Liberty offense that runs the ball more than pretty much anyone in the country. The Flames are 4th nationally in rush attempts per game and rushing play percentage. First of all that eats clock and secondly MTSU has been very solid vs the run. They are allowing 135 YPG rushing and only 3.9 YPC. Only 1 team has topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Blue Raider defense and that was Alabama in their season opener. They held SEC opponent Missouri to just 2.4 YPC and Jacksonville State (14th nationally in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. Liberty will have success but we don’t think it will be easy. Offensively MTSU is not great to say the least. They rank 79th in YPP and 108th in scoring averaging only 22 PPG. Those numbers look even worse consider their last 5 opponents have been Murray State (FCS), Colorado State (131st in total defense), Western Kentucky (128th in total defense), Jacksonville St (67th in total defense), and La Tech (64th in total defense). Now they face a Liberty stop unit that ranks 18th nationally in total defense and 24th in YPP allowed. The Flames are giving up only 17 PPG and they’ve allowed just 35 total points their last 3 games. MTSU will struggle on offense in this one. Because they are primarily a running team, Liberty is very slow paced (117th in pace) as they like get ahead and control the tempo. That’s how we see this game playing out. Liberty games are averaging 53 total points per game and MTSU games are averaging 54 total points, both less than this current number. We see this game ending the high 40’s making Under the play.