#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win.