#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro Pick or -1 over Samford, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We played against this UNCG team on Sunday @ Furman and picked up a loss as the Spartans upset the Paladins on the road 89-87. We were very impressed with that win as UNCG was in a tough spot playing the 2nd of back to back road games and their 3rd in 4 games away from home. They also had this huge revenge game on deck but they stayed focused on a full strength Furman team that was undervalued (due to earlier season injuries) but now back at full strength. The Paladins, with their injury woes behind them, had won 6 of 7 games entering Sunday including topping Samford by 10 at home. Impressive win for UNCG. Now they are back at home where the Spartans are 9-1 this season and 20-4 since the start of last season. One of those 4 home losses in the last 2 seasons was vs this Samford team last year as Greensboro lost by 2 missing a 3 point shot at the buzzer which would have given them the win giving the Spartans a little extra motivation along with the loss they suffered @ Samford earlier this season. UNCG is hitting their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games and they sit 1 game behind Samford for 1st place in the SoCon so a win here pushes them into a tie at the top of the league. The Bulldogs offensive numbers for the season are impressive but they drop WAY off on the road. At home Samford averages a ridiculous 95 PPG but in their 9 road games they’ve only averaged 72 PPG. They make 45% of their triples at home and that drops to only 34% away from home. It’s also the 2nd of back to back road games for Samford and their 3rd in 4 on the road. Now they take those deflated road numbers into Greensboro where the Spartans have been terrific. They’ve outscored opponents by an average score of 85-66 at home while shooting 51% overall and 44% from 3. The Bulldogs were +3 @ Furman (lost by 10), +2 @ Western Carolina, and +2 @ Chattanooga in league play, all teams rated below UNCG yet the Spartans are a lighter favorite (line opened UNCG -1). We like the home team to get this win on Thursday night