#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win. We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair. We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral. Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play. They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency. All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric. The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st. They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both. Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season. In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense. UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation. The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game). On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe. Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.